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Seeking Alpha
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After spending some time researching some of my favorite gurus like David Einhorn, Guy Spier, and Mohnish Pabrai, it became clear that all of them had one thing in common among their investment disciplines and strategies: an investment checklist influenced by Warren Buffett.

Buffett’s qualitative checklist has always placed a premium on a simple business plan, sound management, consistent earning capacity, high returns, and a prudent approach to debt. After collecting some of Buffett’s most commons disciplines and qualifications, I ran everyone’s (including mine) darling silver streamer, Silver Wheaton (SLW), through Buffett's qualitative checklist.

1. Is the business understandable and how is money made?

Sure, SLW is a precious metals streamer. It generates its profits from the sale of mostly silver and a little gold. Silver Wheaton enters into agreements with mining companies where, in exchange for an upfront payment, it has the right to purchase, at a low fixed cost, all or a portion of the silver production from these same mines. Upon buying the silver, (SLW’s last quarter average costs was $4.10 per silver equivalent ounce) SLW then generates profits from selling the silver at market price. (Its average sale price per ounce of silver last quarter was $31.25.) Silver Wheaton anticipates is total cash cost per silver equivalent ounce to remain unchanged at approximately $4.10 for the next full year.

2. Does the business have a consistent operating history?

Buffett loves companies that have been producing the same product of service for years. Although Silver Wheaton has only been around a little under a decade, it is the track record of SLW’s investment decisions that makes SLW so successful. Silver Wheaton currently has contracts on 14 operating mines and contracts on three developing mines. SLW on average has inked two streaming deals a year going back to the company’s inception in 2004.

As an example of SLW’s due diligence in streaming selection, SLW’s core silver asset, the San Dimas mine has been in operation for over 100 years and provided SLW with over 40 million silver ounces. The San Dimas mine has plans of increasing development expenses some 50% next year and eventually increasing throughput capacity by 30% in the next three years. SLW has the rights to buy 100% of all silver production for the life of the San Dimas mine.

3. Does the company have favorable long term prospects?

Warren Buffett makes sure his companies are in a business or service that is needed or desired, and additionally has no close substitutes. While the global demand for silver is moderately increasing, it is the individual investor interest that increased American silver coin demand 20% last year to all time highs. Other drivers like global economic and political uncertainty, potential currency devaluations, sovereign-debt crisis and inflation have certainly made silver a desired precious metal. What about substitutes for SLW’s product, silver? There really isn’t a substitute for silver in most of its industrial uses and there is only one substitute for silver as a precious metal, and that’s gold.

In regards to future prospects, SLW has certainly positioned itself for long term growth. Of the 16 streaming contracts SLW currently has, 13 of them have a term of agreement that lasts the life of the mine, and most of these agreements also warrant SLW 100% of all silver production. Based on their current agreements alone, not anticipating any additional contracts, SLW predicts their precious metal annual attributable production to increase by 80% by 2015. SLW certainly has favorable long term prospects.

4. Is there a big moat around the business, a high threshold to entry?

This may be where Silver Wheaton drops the ball. When talking about SLW’s moat, or lack thereof, what stops a different streamer from coming in and offering mines a slightly better deal than what SLW has offered? As an industry there is a weak barrier to entry into streaming precious metals. That being said, SLW has a diverse and profitable portfolio of mines. It would take tremendous amounts of capital and time to even compete with SLW’s current streaming deals.

5. Is it a business where even a dummy could succeed? Can current operations be maintained without too much needing to be spent?

Successfully picking and choosing what mines to pay large amounts of upfront payments for certainly requires exceptional experience and knowledge in the mining field. The mining industry has always been hard to predict, but SLW’s team has already done all the work and already shown exceptional profit and efficiency. The company could make no new deals and still be very profitable. Much of the work that makes Silver Wheaton profitable is already done. Anybody can make money buying something at $4 and selling it and $30.

6. Is the company free to adjust prices to inflation?

Inflation? Bring it on! With inflation being a major driver to increasing precious metal prices, SLW will only benefit from inflation.

7. Is the company soundly managed? Is the company wise when it comes to retained earnings? Does management resist institutional imperative?

Buffett looks for companies that show competence in managing profits. Additionally, he also seeks companies with management teams that resist a “lust for activity”. When looking at Silver Wheaton’s history relative to its earnings, the company has only two goals. Save cash for more streaming deals and return profits to shareholders. As of their last quarter, the company had cash on hand of $701 million.

The company explains the cash and credit are available strictly to pursue additional acquisitions for more silver interests. Additionally, SLW has announced its modest and safe dividend at just $0.12 per share annually. In the last two years SLW has made a handful of cash, saved it, and remained disciplined both in spending it and returning it to shareholders.

When it comes to management, Buffett likes companies that don’t overdo it with blind duplication or management that pursues business outside of their core competencies. The company only has 24 full time employees! The last big news was back in 2010 when SLW signed the Rosemont Mine contract which was signed in February of that year. Beyond this, there has only been news reporting management changes, their announcement of their dividends and changes to various mining deals. All is quiet on the Silver Wheaton front, besides the record net earnings, record net cash flow, and doubled revenue.

Silver Wheaton clearly has a strong business plan, sound management, and great long term prospects. After running it through Buffett’s qualitative disciplines, SLW checks out on a lot of Buffett’s core criteria. Maybe he should pick some up.

Disclosure: I am long SLW.

Additional disclosure: I have no plans on selling my position in SLW in the next several years.

This article is tagged with: Long & Short Ideas, Long Ideas, Basic Materials, Silver, Canada
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  • Bryce,

    Nice article and I can see where you are coming from. As for the moat, remember that SLW has several right of first refusal agreements with the largest miners in the world such as Barrick and Goldcorp, this is your moat. It would be hard, not impossible, for another company to come in and offer a similar deal for the next big mining deal. If Goldcorp is contemplating a new mine and they already have an agreement with SLW, and SLW has the cash (and they do), where do you think Goldcorp will go for the money?
    22 Aug 2011, 08:09 AMReport Abuse2
  • Kevin,

    thanks for the comment on SLW's moat. I also think its worth mentioning that future contracts are not going to warrant companies the right to buy silver at such a low cost like SLW has. if Silver is continues to trade higher, future streams will be paying $10.00 per silver ounce against SLW's $4. Mines will want to sell silver at higher prices with silver trending and trading higher.
    22 Aug 2011, 12:18 PMReport Abuse0
  • Analysis after a stock price goes from $2.84 to $40 has little value. Tell us about good stocks before they become ten baggers.
    22 Aug 2011, 12:25 PMReport Abuse1
  • There are two other streaming companies, Sandstorm Metals and Energy and Sandstorm Gold. Both are still very cheap and both are managed by the former CFO of Silver Wheaton.
    22 Aug 2011, 12:28 PMReport Abuse0
  • Amvet! thanks for your comment. SLW still has a three bagger in it. I will post a article on the valuation of SLW soon! SNDXF is also one of my favorites but a much smaller weight relative to SLW. I am long SNDXF. Thanks
    22 Aug 2011, 12:37 PMReport Abuse0
  • I don't want to get off the (SLW) thread here, but thought I'd just quickly question your long on (SNDXF). This jr. minor only has less than 300k vol trading. What if you can't get out? what do you expect this stock to end up and when? and what's your take on sister co. (STTYF.PK)
    13 Sep 2011, 10:17 AMReport Abuse0
  • Buffett also hates precious metals and believes they have no intrinsic value. While SLW is still a company selling a product, even if it were toilet paper, I think he would say 38x earnings is too high. And a growth rate of 138% (from the MRQ at least I think is how Etrade calculates it) would be a bit overdone. I think this is a good momentum stock, but not a value stock. Although there is a much larger industrial use for silver rather than gold. And they are sporting great returns on capital. Its a tough call. But if it was a true Buffett stock, Berkshire Hathaway would probably own it already.
    22 Aug 2011, 02:31 PMReport Abuse0
  • agreed, Amvet, Alessandro- valuation seems tough here.

    Bryce, really looking forward to your article on valuation. Seems like an interesting business, capital structure looks extremely stable, but I'll be interested to see what sort of earnings growth expectations are baked into the current price and how you got comfortable with them.
    22 Aug 2011, 06:23 PMReport Abuse0
  • Na....Warren sold his 130-140 million ounces of silver way early. So he apparently doesn't have a clue about the silver market.....or he was forced to.
    24 Aug 2011, 07:39 AMReport Abuse1
  • AlessandroDiRoma,

    Thanks for your comment. Buffett likes to ignore economics, whether that is wise or not in our current environment is a different story. Buffett had the privlidge of investing in markets that in my opinion were far more organic and rational. SLW would fall short on some of Buffett's qualitative disciplines, but for just his basic quantitative checklist, SLW looks good.
    22 Aug 2011, 05:02 PMReport Abuse1
  • Alessandro, you need to check your facts; Buffett has previously invested in silver and made a truck load. Also, SLW is nowhere near 38x earnings. (you shouldnt use some website that calculates historical trailing earnings) SLW is trading around 15-20x earnings and that number is falling rapidly. The company will increase production 85% over the next five years and where do you think the price of silver will be then? Here are some quick facts for you all, SLW now makes in the neighborhood of $750 million a year, with a net profit margin above 85% and the company only has 24 employees! Do the math, SLW is without a doubt the most profitable company in the world.
    23 Aug 2011, 12:36 PMReport Abuse3
  • Buffet made a terrible mistake on his silver investment.
    24 Aug 2011, 07:40 AMReport Abuse2
  • You are mistaken about SLW not having a moat. Actually it has a huge moat or competitive advantages in its business. Nearly all of its silver-streams are Life-of-Mine (LOM) contracts meaning +10yrs later they will still getting the same silver-stream. In many cases LOM is even longer than that. The idea of a moat is that it prevent competitors from taking away their business. How can anyone take away their current business if it is contractually set? The long-term contract is the moat. In terms of future business, there really are not any comparable sized competitors to really threaten their position in silver-streaming market. Perhaps the the larger gold royalty could push their way in but their niche is gold.
    24 Aug 2011, 03:23 AMReport Abuse1
  • I like SLW and have some shares and would like to get more, but I'm curious, according to their contracts, what happens when the price of mining goes above $4 per silver ounce equivalent?
    24 Aug 2011, 11:15 PMReport Abuse1
  • in most mines the costs to produce the silver is probably much more than $4.00 per ounce for that mine. Silver is almost always mined as a by-product of other metals. Meaning a copper mine also finds a silver vein. Mines are willing to sign these silver deals at such low prices because their priority is gold copper etc.
    25 Aug 2011, 12:13 PMReport Abuse0
  • So what happens to the SLW contracts if the mines are nationalized? In the current fiat economic climate, that seems quite possible. Once one government does it, others will quite obviously be looking at doing the same.
    25 Aug 2011, 12:44 PMReport Abuse0
  • KDanagger, by the time countries are nationalizing mines for their precious metals i would have to think silver is $100+ and SLW $150+
    5 Sep 2011, 07:16 PMReport Abuse0
  • What's your price target? Does it still have room to grow at $40/share?
    3 Sep 2011, 08:27 AMReport Abuse0
  • Amine thanks for your comment. My SLW price purchases average form $20 to $42. I think SLW is just getting started. The company projects they will growh their silver production 80% in 5 years, not bad. I don't have a price target for SLW or a earnings multiple i would sell as i don't see much hurting silver/gold for years to come. In my opinion there is a scenario where SLW becomes a mega cap star. Stayed tuned, i am working on valuation piece on Silverwheaton as we speak. having silver abvove of $40 and possibly $50+ by year end is a pretty easy way to grow profits in addition to adding to their mine portfolio. Imagine if silver hits $100.
    5 Sep 2011, 07:12 PMReport Abuse1
  • Buffett usually doesn't buy companies with a 30 PE.
    13 Sep 2011, 07:36 AMReport Abuse0
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